Modelagem e simulação: um estudo de caso sobre a ocorrência de custos em projetos de engenharia
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Data
2023-06-23
Tipo de documento
Monografia
Título da Revista
ISSN da Revista
Título de Volume
Área do conhecimento
Engenharias
Modalidade de acesso
Acesso aberto
Editora
Autores
Maidana, Alexandre Lovato
Orientador
Ackermann, Andres Eberhard Friedl
Coorientador
Resumo
O objetivo deste estudo é realizar uma análise aprofundada sobre a incidência dos custos em projetos de engenharia multidisciplinar, com o intuito de identificar estratégias eficientes para reduzir esses custos e otimizar a estimativa do valor de venda nos orçamentos de projetos com o auxílio da simulação de Monte Carlo. Para realizar este estudo, o presente trabalho foi desenvolvido em uma empresa que presta serviços na área de projetos de engenharia multidisciplinar. Este trabalho é um estudo de caso, pois será investigado a incidência de custo dentro de projetos de engenharia já realizados no passado, fazendo a análise de alocação de horas da orçamentação até a entrega do projeto, por meio da coleta de dados de mais de um banco de dados como evidências, o que caracteriza uma pesquisa qualitativa onde o tipo de investigação é exploratório, pois foi analisado mais de um caso para definir o tema pesquisado. Foi desenvolvido um método para criar um modelo piloto utilizando a simulação de monte carlo, e, com a ajuda do diagrama de pareto, foi mapeado
a disciplina que apresentou os dados históricos de horas previstas e realizadas que mais tem representatividade no total. Com isso, foi feita a análise do consumo de horas por intervalo de faixa de horas previstas, onde foi simulado cenários que recalcularam o valor de venda conforme a porcentagem de consumo de horas de para as categorias de engenheiro e projetista. Com a elaboração e o desenvolvimento do método, foi possível validar um reajuste de aumento de até 51,79% no valor de venda de orçamentos que ficam no intervalo de faixa de horas de 0 a 100 horas, aumento de 20,70% no valor de venda de orçamentos que ficam no intervalo de faixa de horas de 100 a 200 horas, aumento de 32,59% no valor de venda de orçamentos que ficam no intervalo de faixa de horas de 200 a 300 horas e um aumento de 19,21% no valor de venda de orçamentos que ficam no intervalo de faixa de horas de 300 a 400 horas. Foi aplicado o método em projetos finalizados em 2023 e foi concluído que os orçamentos podem ser reajustados em média 112,46% com base em consumo de horas recentes por intervalo de faixa de horas.
The objective of this study is to conduct a thorough analysis of cost incidence in multidisciplinary engineering projects, aiming to identify efficient strategies to reduce these costs and optimize the estimation of the selling value in project budgets with the aid of Monte Carlo simulation. To carry out this study, the present work was developed in a company that provides services in the field of multidisciplinary engineering projects. This work is a case study, as it will investigate the cost incidence within engineering projects that have already been carried out in the past, analyzing the allocation of hours from budgeting to project delivery, through the collection of data from more than one database as evidence, which characterizes qualitative research where the type of investigation is exploratory, as more than one case was analyzed to define the researched theme. A method was developed to create a pilot model using Monte Carlo simulation, and with the help of the Pareto diagram, the discipline that presented the most representative historical data of estimated and actual hours was mapped. Thus, an analysis of hours consumption per range of estimated hours was carried out, simulating scenarios that recalculated the selling value according to the percentage of hours consumption for engineer and designer categories. With the elaboration and development of the method, it was possible to validate an increase adjustment of up to 51.79% in the selling value of budgets that fall within the range of 0 to 100 hours, a 20.70% increase in the selling value of budgets that fall within the range of 100 to 200 hours, a 32.59% increase in the selling value of budgets that fall within the range of 200 to 300 hours, and a 19.21% increase in the selling value of budgets that fall within the range of 300 to 400 hours. The method was applied to projects completed in 2023, and it was concluded that budgets can be adjusted on average by 112.46% based on recent hours consumption per range of estimated hours.
The objective of this study is to conduct a thorough analysis of cost incidence in multidisciplinary engineering projects, aiming to identify efficient strategies to reduce these costs and optimize the estimation of the selling value in project budgets with the aid of Monte Carlo simulation. To carry out this study, the present work was developed in a company that provides services in the field of multidisciplinary engineering projects. This work is a case study, as it will investigate the cost incidence within engineering projects that have already been carried out in the past, analyzing the allocation of hours from budgeting to project delivery, through the collection of data from more than one database as evidence, which characterizes qualitative research where the type of investigation is exploratory, as more than one case was analyzed to define the researched theme. A method was developed to create a pilot model using Monte Carlo simulation, and with the help of the Pareto diagram, the discipline that presented the most representative historical data of estimated and actual hours was mapped. Thus, an analysis of hours consumption per range of estimated hours was carried out, simulating scenarios that recalculated the selling value according to the percentage of hours consumption for engineer and designer categories. With the elaboration and development of the method, it was possible to validate an increase adjustment of up to 51.79% in the selling value of budgets that fall within the range of 0 to 100 hours, a 20.70% increase in the selling value of budgets that fall within the range of 100 to 200 hours, a 32.59% increase in the selling value of budgets that fall within the range of 200 to 300 hours, and a 19.21% increase in the selling value of budgets that fall within the range of 300 to 400 hours. The method was applied to projects completed in 2023, and it was concluded that budgets can be adjusted on average by 112.46% based on recent hours consumption per range of estimated hours.
Palavras-chave
Pesquisa Operacional, Simulação de monte carlo, Projetos de engenharia, Diagrama de pareto, Incidência de custos